The global glut in lead is falling to a five-year low as China, the biggest buyer, consumes a record amount to make batteries for everything from cars to emergency lighting to electric bicycles. The supply surplus will drop to 8,000 metric tons in 2012 from 78,000 tons this year as China, which accounts for about 44 percent of global demand, uses 9.5 percent more, Morgan Stanley estimates. Prices may rise as much as 19 percent to $2,500 a ton next year, according to the median estimate of 18 producers, analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg. While lead slumped 18 percent this year amid mounting investor concern that slower economic growth will sap the use of raw materials, analysts and traders say prices will rally because consumption is expanding. Demand will advance for a 10th consecutive year in 2012, and for at least four more years after that, Morgan Stanley predicts.
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